Epidemic dynamics model
with COVID-19 pandemic as an example
The model description is taken from the article: Etienne Cheynet, "Generalized SEIR Epidemic Model (fitting and computation)". The article analyzes the epidemic of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in various regions of the planet. The figure shows the simulation with the parameters specified in the article for Italy (only the total population corresponds to the population of Ukraine). The model is a system of six differential equations with parameters that can be varied.
SEIR is a well-known epidemic model with a significant incubation period
A real model for the COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine
The model for Italy from the above article is adapted for Ukraine by modification of some parameters. For the adaptation, daily mortality data taken from the “2020 coronavirus pandemic in Ukraine. Statistics” were used. The picture represents the statistics data points and the model with forecast - the curve of estimated mortality (total number of deaths from COVID-19 by a certain day, the starting point is the date of the first death on Mar 12 2020). Mortality statistics taken on Feb 11 2021, data will be adjusted
